Crystal Ball

[Shimmy1]

What’s an ITB?

^^^^^

 

[AzIron]

Back to the thread topic.

Surprised at the ITB's in my inbox in the dead week (from Christmas to New Years) for new projects both private and government/institutional.

2024 looks decent.

Your telling me in the last 10 days I have been asked about more projects then I have done in about 5 months that all want to start in 1st quarter and that would be on top of what we are already doing

But i would guess half will push out time will tell

What’s an ITB?

Invite to bid

 

[CM1995]

But i would guess half will push out time will tell

Same here, I bet a good majority gets pushed. At the same time also seeing projects come back around that were bid and not awarded 6-8 months ago.

Just glad to see the activity. Nice Fed gov't clear and grub job in North AL if anyone is interested. A little to big for us but might stick a toe in the water.

 

[AzIron]

Same here, I bet a good majority gets pushed. At the same time also seeing projects come back around that were bid and not awarded 6-8 months ago.

Just glad to see the activity. Nice Fed gov't clear and grub job in North AL if anyone is interested. A little to big for us but might stick a toe in the water.

I see a lot of permit pending on stuff I bid 4 to 6 months ago and I have at least a dozen proceed at owners risk letters from this year it seems like permits are the biggest bottle neck here

The last 9 months shifted from jobs ready waiting for us to show up to us waiting on permits and a number of guys I talked to are seeing the same thing. It is really disrupting the work flow almost to the point that now we are getting into schedule crunches where we have to turn a job down because that same month 2 others had permits issued and they are all 3 to 4 months behind schedule. I personally believe the schedule impacts and the surprise that projects spend an addition 3 to 4 months in permitting is bad management on the GCs part but I might be biased

One thing iscertain I do see draws running to the very end of the pay schedule where a year ago that was not the case so I think money is definitely tightened people are pushing back a lot harder on change orders

 

[CM1995]

One thing iscertain I do see draws running to the very end of the pay schedule where a year ago that was not the case so I think money is definitely tightened people are pushing back a lot harder on change orders

Same here. One large home improvement store has paid 90+ days. Another large developer out of Texas was paying 90+ until the end of the year then they sent Oct and Nov at the same time.

Valid change orders are being scrutinized more than I've seen in the last couple of years as well.

Autoparts and coffee paid on time like clockwork - 30-40 days. Next couple of projects up is for local private developers so we'll see how that goes.

 

[Georgia Iron]

You would not believe the solar going in here it is insane I bet there had been close to 15 square miles built in the last 10 years

Rural land in Georgia near big power lines, is commanding a premium for solar. If you have over 350 acres of land that touches the line, they are buying or doing long term leases on the land. That land has tripled in valve almost overnight. A large tract of 1100 acres of farmers fields just sold for 14,000 per acre. In the area, top of the line irrigated farm land price was 3000 per acre 10 years ago. Seems all lands for sale has mostly disappeared in the middle of no where. The big timber companies and railroad owners just sit on the gaint tracts they have owned forever. And the large farmers are getting everything else. The few tracts that do up for sale are overpriced and are from old people dyeing and then the farm is sold off. They farmers have crews that are clearing the land with excavators, off road trucks, and big wheel loaders.

Logging is going on non-stop and so is the farming. So many tracts have been completely clear cut recently and replanted. The amount of large tractors and machines the bigger farmers have is truely amazing. There is a local peanut processing plant that 17 farmers went in on and they have more than 100 tractor trailers, and who know how many transport bins and the plant is large and it runs 24 hours a day drying peanuts. 20 + million dollar operation.

The farmer that is next door to them is tending over 5000 acres of land.

Moving around south central Georgia to Savannha Ga on I-16, and then on to I-20 which runs to South Carolina and I-75 which runs north and south across the state, the amount of tilt wall construction it is hard to imagine. 100s of buildings are being built, millions and millions of sq feet. Mostly ware-houses.

The shipping that is increasing due to the port enlargement in Savannha must be out of this world. Our state is forever changing and the ruralness is disappearing. They are building 2 auto plants, one north of Atlanta the initial gravel order was 1.6 million tons. 5 quarries filling that order with 60 dumps per day running on just that one job. And they are building an auto plant off of I-16 about 20 miles outside of Savannha. The size and the scope must be a one billion dollar project. Saw at least 5 cranes set up on that one.

For me last year the commercial grading, I did well. Paid off all equipment, bought several more used machines, expanded my abilities and I have the machinery to do more and larger work. In order to do this, I was on call 24 hours a day and working 14 hour days. I got into more work than I could handle but managed to get it all done. I am questioning the point of making money and buying more machines. I was always told to make hay while the sun is shinning and I did. I am a firm believer in using old machines instead of new. Then I see the large dirt guys using new machines and I wonder if I got it wrong.

I started off doing smaller residential work and have moved almost completely into commercial work. I don't have a crew it is just me. I can call others to help me if I need labor. But I don't know anyone that can replace me for my skill set, which means I have to actually do the work. I have worked alone for almost 18 years, then I was hired by another grader 3 years ago, that was giving me sub-contracting type work, he made me think we would be building a partnership and growing "our" business. It turns out I was growing "his" business. Well long story short I left which was hard for me to do because working in a group is easier than working alone and we were adding guys and building the business. I had been offered to come to work direct for a few GC's that knew me and my work and I just went to work straight for them.
Since I was not really part of the pricing prior I probably did it for less than the going rate but when you are working alone what does it matter...

From what I see in Georgia right now construction is good and if you have machinery and contacts you can get work. A lot of construction companies are growing. How long this lasts it is hard to say. I see people doing work that do not own machines on these jobs, everything is rented. Plumbers get a rental ex and come in from out of town for a few weeks and knock out the work. The GC's own nothing, rent everything. The guys making the money are the main dirt site contractors doing the dirt work, they own and rent their equipment.

Apart from that our housing market is still in demand, interest rates have went to 8.6% for a cash out refi. and 7.75 % for a purchase. Several neighborhoods are going in and advertising 600k plus but the houses are selling for 1 million. I don't really understand how people can afford those prices with the interest. Makes you wonder if money is getting pumped into different groups by the government. I know I have not gotten any.

The truly well off people I have seen deal in real estate and rental houses. The bankers and the government is making serious money off of interest now. What I cant figure out is 3 years ago they were talking about 3% interest rates and CD's paid .5 percent. Now CDs pay 5% and the interest rate is 7.5%. IF you have money you are now getting a bigger cut, just different numbers. Those that borrow are getting hit harder. Which means they will work more and have less.


The up and down cycle will repeat. But the game just resets to different numbers and the wheel will keep turning.

 

[CM1995]

There is some secret squirrel type project being planned in north central AL by Turner Construction. We've been told it's a $1B project and not part of Red Stone Arsenal.

 

[crane operator]

2024 financial check up time. We've been pretty busy this year, but hit a lull the last two weeks. Not "no work", just not the typical "how are we going to get everywhere" we've been having. But we typically have a lull late july/ early august. It seems odd, but its a pretty typical thing every year for us.

Next week is packed, and if everything happens, I've had enough calls to keep us slammed until the end of the year.

I thought the rise in interest was going to slow things down, two years ago. But it really hasn't changed things that I can tell. It seems like it is just now the "new" normal. I talked to the banker the other day, and they said "just get whatever you need", which of course means I'm not borrowing any more than I absolutely have to.

Semi truck prices are coming down. I've not seen a huge drop in equipment pricing. Parts are still hard to come by for some things.

Housing seems to have no end in sight, I went through a development south of Kansas City this week, with a big sign "homes from $600,000- 1 million". Moving dirt like mad.

 

[DMiller]

Homes this side of state have stalled, those with decent Finances are somewhat buying to leave Ladue or Clayton, those in outlying areas are stagnating.

 

[JD955SC]

2024 financial check up time. We've been pretty busy this year, but hit a lull the last two weeks. Not "no work", just not the typical "how are we going to get everywhere" we've been having. But we typically have a lull late july/ early august. It seems odd, but its a pretty typical thing every year for us.

Next week is packed, and if everything happens, I've had enough calls to keep us slammed until the end of the year.

I thought the rise in interest was going to slow things down, two years ago. But it really hasn't changed things that I can tell. It seems like it is just now the "new" normal. I talked to the banker the other day, and they said "just get whatever you need", which of course means I'm not borrowing any more than I absolutely have to.

Semi truck prices are coming down. I've not seen a huge drop in equipment pricing. Parts are still hard to come by for some things.

Housing seems to have no end in sight, I went through a development south of Kansas City this week, with a big sign "homes from $600,000- 1 million". Moving dirt like mad.

Where the hell is everybody getting money to buy $500-1 mill houses? I want one of those jobs

 

[JD955SC]

Rural land in Georgia near big power lines, is commanding a premium for solar. If you have over 350 acres of land that touches the line, they are buying or doing long term leases on the land. That land has tripled in valve almost overnight. A large tract of 1100 acres of farmers fields just sold for 14,000 per acre. In the area, top of the line irrigated farm land price was 3000 per acre 10 years ago. Seems all lands for sale has mostly disappeared in the middle of no where. The big timber companies and railroad owners just sit on the gaint tracts they have owned forever. And the large farmers are getting everything else. The few tracts that do up for sale are overpriced and are from old people dyeing and then the farm is sold off. They farmers have crews that are clearing the land with excavators, off road trucks, and big wheel loaders.

Logging is going on non-stop and so is the farming. So many tracts have been completely clear cut recently and replanted. The amount of large tractors and machines the bigger farmers have is truely amazing. There is a local peanut processing plant that 17 farmers went in on and they have more than 100 tractor trailers, and who know how many transport bins and the plant is large and it runs 24 hours a day drying peanuts. 20 + million dollar operation.

The farmer that is next door to them is tending over 5000 acres of land.

Moving around south central Georgia to Savannha Ga on I-16, and then on to I-20 which runs to South Carolina and I-75 which runs north and south across the state, the amount of tilt wall construction it is hard to imagine. 100s of buildings are being built, millions and millions of sq feet. Mostly ware-houses.

The shipping that is increasing due to the port enlargement in Savannha must be out of this world. Our state is forever changing and the ruralness is disappearing. They are building 2 auto plants, one north of Atlanta the initial gravel order was 1.6 million tons. 5 quarries filling that order with 60 dumps per day running on just that one job. And they are building an auto plant off of I-16 about 20 miles outside of Savannha. The size and the scope must be a one billion dollar project. Saw at least 5 cranes set up on that one.

For me last year the commercial grading, I did well. Paid off all equipment, bought several more used machines, expanded my abilities and I have the machinery to do more and larger work. In order to do this, I was on call 24 hours a day and working 14 hour days. I got into more work than I could handle but managed to get it all done. I am questioning the point of making money and buying more machines. I was always told to make hay while the sun is shinning and I did. I am a firm believer in using old machines instead of new. Then I see the large dirt guys using new machines and I wonder if I got it wrong.

I started off doing smaller residential work and have moved almost completely into commercial work. I don't have a crew it is just me. I can call others to help me if I need labor. But I don't know anyone that can replace me for my skill set, which means I have to actually do the work. I have worked alone for almost 18 years, then I was hired by another grader 3 years ago, that was giving me sub-contracting type work, he made me think we would be building a partnership and growing "our" business. It turns out I was growing "his" business. Well long story short I left which was hard for me to do because working in a group is easier than working alone and we were adding guys and building the business. I had been offered to come to work direct for a few GC's that knew me and my work and I just went to work straight for them.
Since I was not really part of the pricing prior I probably did it for less than the going rate but when you are working alone what does it matter...

From what I see in Georgia right now construction is good and if you have machinery and contacts you can get work. A lot of construction companies are growing. How long this lasts it is hard to say. I see people doing work that do not own machines on these jobs, everything is rented. Plumbers get a rental ex and come in from out of town for a few weeks and knock out the work. The GC's own nothing, rent everything. The guys making the money are the main dirt site contractors doing the dirt work, they own and rent their equipment.

Apart from that our housing market is still in demand, interest rates have went to 8.6% for a cash out refi. and 7.75 % for a purchase. Several neighborhoods are going in and advertising 600k plus but the houses are selling for 1 million. I don't really understand how people can afford those prices with the interest. Makes you wonder if money is getting pumped into different groups by the government. I know I have not gotten any.

The truly well off people I have seen deal in real estate and rental houses. The bankers and the government is making serious money off of interest now. What I cant figure out is 3 years ago they were talking about 3% interest rates and CD's paid .5 percent. Now CDs pay 5% and the interest rate is 7.5%. IF you have money you are now getting a bigger cut, just different numbers. Those that borrow are getting hit harder. Which means they will work more and have less.


The up and down cycle will repeat. But the game just resets to different numbers and the wheel will keep turning.

I don’t have proof but there has to be serious market manipulation going on by the feds beyond their normal crap to keep this going. And when it collapses it’s going to be really, really bad

 

[AzIron]

Price increases and higher interest have slowed certain work like warehouses but it's not stopped the data center game seems to be full steam ahead but the tech is changing so fast with AI that as soon as we start the plans are being amended and then comes delays to continue

Housing here is slow compared to past trends but it's not dead now multifamily is on fire and can't be kept up with

We hit a real slow spot April and may and massive coordination problems on 2 jobs have really put a damper on how busy we have been over summer but as of the last 2 weeks we have been working a lot of overtime to make schedule

 

[cfherrman]

Where the hell is everybody getting money to buy $500-1 mill houses? I want one of those jobs

My brother has a 1 mil house and $3000/month daycare

 

[DMiller]

Many in the Bigger St Charles County big money homes are on Fifty Year mortgages, a California style banking introduction here.
Conveniently Realtor offered or Suggested, “will make a Profit as sell in Future” a common recital.

 

[cfherrman]

There's also interest only loans too

 

[nicky 68a]

Here in the UK we fell into recession Oct 22 in my opinion.That’s obviously not official,but just my educated thoughts on the matter.
The quarries get hit first,then the construction catches up,with many contractors only feeling the pinch this year.This was probably down to legacy work getting things done and completed.
This year,the UK has seen a vast amount of rain with barley a few days going by without rain.Combine this rain with a lack of projects,and you have a lot of sweating contractors.
Prices of good machinery hasn’t come down in spectacular fashion,it still sells somehow,but it’s definitely getting harder to sell bigger machinery for the big projects.
A dealer I do a few days a month for is doing ok on certain Cat equipment that has long lead times on from Cat,but other stuff is stalling out such as D9,D10 tractors,777’s etc,but 775’s,D8’s are doing ok.By ok,I mean enough to comfortably pay the wages etc,but probably not enough to go on a spending spree.
I also have a few domestic and commercial properties that I rent out.Ive noticed four of my tennants now reverting to paying monthly rather than yearly.This actually suits me,as it costs them more money,but it’s the sort of trend that gets me tightening my belt for winter.

 

[DMiller]

HD Trucks here have slowed drastically, a few larger fleets are investing in mass repairs rather than purchase new even losing out on DOC system warranties. Most are expecting a slump as contracts come to anniversaries. Raw Cement companies stopped the major renovations so something is up they can see.

 

[cfherrman]

We have been in a silent depression for a couple of years now, it was easier back in the 30's than now

 

[crane operator]

We have been in a silent depression for a couple of years now, it was easier back in the 30's than now

You have no idea what you are talking about. I guess I grew up with my grandparents having lived through the depression. Read your history. Look at the pictures. There were people lined up for soup kitchens, and when you see pictures of them old boys, they are all skinny as a rail. They couldn't afford to eat.


We live in a country where one of the largest health problems is obesity. And that's worse than the '30's?

My dad remembers when they got water in the house, when he was a kid. And rural electric.

When I was a kid, we didn't have a lot, but we always had a house, and we always had food, and a lot of people in the '30's didn't have that.

 

[Truck Shop]

Some actual on class 8---instead of guessing.
*

Sales of new Class 8 trucks remain strong but declines expected by year-end

These are interesting times in the world of Class 8 truck sales. Inventory levels at dealers and body suppliers are up, and sales of New Class 8 trucks

www.thetrucker.com