Crystal Ball

[crane operator]

So- what's everyone's crystal ball saying? The tech markets are in the tank, but I'm in the "old worn out equipment" market instead of the stock market, and we've been busy. fuel is still up, groceries in the store are up, shipping and parts cost are up.

We in for a crash? the worst already over?

I don't want this to get political, although politics and economy can be intertwined. But we're looking at doing some different things and I was just curious what the collective mind has for opinions on where we are currently heading?

My personal opinion is things aren't going to change much. We've just elected gridlock in DC for another two years, interest rates aren't going to go up much, because uncle sam owes too much money himself- he can't afford higher interest rates. I think the only thing either party will agree on- is that they will bail out/ print whatever $$ they need to not have a hard recession like '08 again.

But a couple years ago I was down on facebook, uber, and tesla, and some other tech stuff, and I missed a huge rise in all those stocks, I was just a little early on their price fall. So I could be just as wrong now, as I was wrong then.

So what says the collective- go hard, hold fast, or batten down the hatches because we're in for a rough ride?

 

[The Peej]

I think we are in for a rough ride. With heating oil, fuel and groceries up and peoples income flat its going to be a long winter. A lot of people are living paycheck to paycheck its going to hard on them. I'm not all doom and gloom but am definitely watching my spending more and minimizing any debt.

 

[Vetech63]

I'm hunkering in myself. I have 2 vehicles that need replaced right now but no way am I getting into more debt anytime soon. I'll have my work truck paid for in 3 months and I'll be debt free again, just in time as I see it. Call me weird but I have never played in the markets, I just don't trust others with handling my money. I will be putting money back and riding out the storm until better times arrive.

 

[aighead]

I think I'm with Crane Op on this one. I'm not worried but sometimes feel like I should be.

I have minimal debt, only the house and barn, and I'm above water (for the most part substantially) on both of those should I need to get out. My wife has some auto debt, but it's manageable and she works for the gov't so is pretty safe.

I have some money in the stock market that will stay there. It's not huge amounts but it's some. I wish I had more cash there so I could be buying more stocks right now. I have a few different accounts. One that is managed and is more money, one that I play with and after doing well on a few stocks it's all free money now, so I don't worry about it.

KimDotCom has an interesting thread on Twitter talking about the world financial system, I'll paraphrase poorly- Basically he says that Russia and China are attempting to come up with a note that basically competes with the Dollar. The thought is it would/could take over from the dollar which is way, way over extended (or way, way in debt, or both) in USA and Europe. He's got some thought behind it but I struggle to see how either of those markets have a sustainable currency should the west fall apart, as it seems like that's where most of that money comes from.

 

[cfherrman]

They just passed a huge school bond here and costs are up everywhere and only going higher. It's going to be hard times for a lot of people and turning a lot of people into debt slaves. High oil prices will keep us out a recession.

 

[terex herder]

Some things have cooled off, but many things are in short supply. That means someone is using those things. Try to find nice windows for a house next month. Try to find circuit breakers for an industrial plant, or a plc, or other switchgear. Try to buy a piece of new equipment. That stuff isn't going to happen short term.

Everyone is still working, the USA is way short of housing. I think the chances of a significant recession are overblown. That is my take today. Tomorrow may bring a new circumstances.

 

[aighead]

I don't know how common the resistors I'm trying to buy are (and I don't know anything about resistors, in general) but any of the ones I'm looking for have a 40 week lead time...

 

[92U 3406]

I think trying to keep up the appearance of wealth is what's coming to bite a lot people.

 

[Old Doug]

Every one talks gloom and doom but how knows. My world is just kind of flat i wish scrap iron would go up some but i am still hauling some. I have noticed more out of stock stuff now than ever before. I am going to down size and figure out ways to save money. It could be alot worse .

 

[Old Doug]

I think trying to keep up the appearance of wealth is what's coming to bite a lot people.

Alot of people have been able to have every thing new trying to keep up that they will be paralyzed try to deal any other way.

 

[John C.]

I've been looking at newer large machines with big payments that people are wanting to trade to smaller iron. What I see is this country has infrastructure; roads, electrical transfer systems, water projects and sewer that has needed to be worked on for years. If congress is split, nothing will happen on any of that. No need for 50 to 80 ton excavators, D8, 9, 10 and 11 dozers, 14 graders and larger, scrapers in any size and 40 ton ADTs. One party hasn't done an infrastructure project since the national highway system got built in the sixties. I agree that money will continue to be printed to just get by and not solve any problems at all.

 

[JD955SC]

For one thing they didn’t learn a damn thing from the ‘08 crash and now are passing out huge loans like candy to truly unqualified buyers.

Crappy, maybe worth $100k on a good day tract homes are all selling for $250-350k. Two people at my work recently brought such homes with accompanying $2100 payments for the next 30 years…

 

[Truck Shop]

Things have changed as far as food inflation goes-our shipments of frozen are slightly down
canned/dry up, but that is a natural shift just like 2008. Car market in this area is soft as far
as new.
But what I see as a controlling factor in trucks the super inflated price. Parts haven't skyrocketed
just because of availability, parts for tier two older stuff has climbed steadily because of tier four
problems. Which has caused a conundrum {do I spend the money and buy new with warranty or
keep the old and pour thousands into it}. I have had several people question me which route is
better-{all depends on the brand and shape of equipment they have now} I have no crystal ball.

As far as what will happen nation wide-no one knows it's just a guess and roll of the dice at this
moment. Probably know more after February.

 

[Tones]

Do you blokes remember on here seeing a video of CEE (Cutting Edge Engineering) Gold Coast Australia rebuilding and remanufacturing earthmoving stuff. I was talking to him other day and he is swamped, not taking on anymore work until late February. And the reason, long lead time on parts and the cost of them. This is what it was like through the hard times in the 60s, 70s only then there wasn't any airfreight. So back to the future we go I'm thinking

 

[aighead]

I listen to a show where they'll occasionally keep an eye on cycles and there have been many, many parallels with our current times to the 1970s. I don't have a good list in mind but it's interesting. I guess it's nice to know we made it through those times ok.

 

[colson04]

Do you blokes remember on here seeing a video of CEE (Cutting Edge Engineering) Gold Coast Australia rebuilding and remanufacturing earthmoving stuff. I was talking to him other day and he is swamped, not taking on anymore work until late February. And the reason, long lead time on parts and the cost of them. This is what it was like through the hard times in the 60s, 70s only then there wasn't any airfreight. So back to the future we go I'm thinking

I watch his new video every week. I really enjoy seeing the type of work he does and how he approaches it. I'm not surprised he is swamped as it is the same way here. The local machine shops around here have all they can handle as well. One shop had to turn work down and go to one shift only due to a lack of employees. They pay well, they have benefits and such, but people don't want to do that type of work. 20 years ago, they had lots of people waiting for their chance to work for them. Today, people put in an application, get a scheduled interview and then don't show up for interview. Same at our farm. Always had list of people in the office that wanted to work. Now we have to chase down any leads we can to find help and most of those are duds.

 

[92U 3406]

I've always kind of approached life with an if I can't write a cheque for it, I can't afford it attitude. I'd much rather wait and save up for a year to buy a new toy than to finance it and pay half again what its worth in interest by the time its paid off.

 

[Spud_Monkey]

Hunkering down and consolidating. Getting ready to snatch up cheap real estate to hold onto for the next boom. Missed the last boom, but will be ready by next one. Far as food, well we are going towards self sustainability anyways so more animals will start popping up come spring. Going to spend winter finalizing pole barn and start setting poles in the ground for fence.
As far as buying any new machinery, nope decided against it work with what I have and in a year or two if I still need it then will consider it, saving up for more land out here.
As for the market, according to financial advisor they are saying hold fast in their reports they send out to us, had to restructure it though holding steady ready at a moments notice just in case to sell off. Everyone thinks we are going to have major crash, I look at history last time we had this much inflation back in the 80's we didn't have large crash as '08, so inflation doesn't always mean a crash though we are due for one. If the wages stagnated when inflation hit as it did then I would of expected one.
My advise, hunker down, consolidate and cut the extras out like cable TV, dining out, road trips. Though invest in something cause any dollar sitting there is losing value when saving, buy low sell high what you know and can.

 

[John C.]

My daughter works for an architect company and says they have work lined up for the next year. I see lots entities girding for a down turn but right now still going balls out crazy. Tech firms taking a hit so maybe that's where the pain in going to be felt the most. Hopefully some people who are let go will end up having to work in the trades and find out sitting behind a desk isn't the glory job they thought it was.

 

[92U 3406]

My daughter works for an architect company and says they have work lined up for the next year. I see lots entities girding for a down turn but right now still going balls out crazy. Tech firms taking a hit so maybe that's where the pain in going to be felt the most. Hopefully some people who are let go will end up having to work in the trades and find out sitting behind a desk isn't the glory job they thought it was.

I hope they stay far away from the trades. Last thing I want to deal with is having coworkers with that kind of corporate mindset if you catch my drift.